Will the west pay?

While the Multi50s are trying to make their way along the Galician coast and waiting to feel the force of the next low pressure system, some of the IMOCA fleet have preferred to invest in the west. With this uncertain weather scenario, immediate tactics are in conflict with a long-term strategy. For the 57 duos left in the race it will be about assessing their boat and the different risk levels. The first verdict may come tomorrow (Wednesday) afternoon or in the evening nearer the next front, which will be more severe than the first.

Heading south!

Without doubt, the Multi50s are keeping in mind the trajectory of the winner of the last Route du Rhum, Armel Tripon. His strategy of dodging along the coast paid off and even though the weather forecast is quite different for this Route du Café, it is clear that the three Multi50s have headed south first. With great accuracy by Solidaires en Peloton ARSEP,which tacked just at the right moment when the wind was dropping and it was on the layline of the TSS (Traffic Separation Scheme) that it is now heading west away from. It may be more complicated for his two pursuers, who may well have to tack twice to avoid entering the forbidden zone.

Invest in the west? 

Is it a case of making quick profits versus investing for the day after tomorrow? Time will tell for the IMOCA. The bulk of the fleet tacked last night, led by Britain’s Samantha Davies and French co-skipper, Paul Meilhat (Initiatives-Cœur), who were the first to turn onto the more direct road. They were quickly followed most of rest. Was that a dilemma for the leader, Charal? follow their route to south or join Hugo Boss, who invested early in the west, on their port angles. On a tactical level, Jérémie Beyou and Christopher Pratt's (Charal)decision to accompany the rest of the fleet late in the night may have been pragmatic, because the scenario for the next 48 hours is quite uncertain. 

The classic pattern of a depression encourages a westerly route to catch the strengthening find first and most important have the best angle for the trade winds after. Basically, you balance going further to be faster and better positioned. However, over the next few days, the curvature of the isobars in the cold front do not guarantee any profitable change of wind angle. The flow may remain in a funnel to the southwest. It is just about stronger - 35 knots  - in the west, but is it really desirable on an IMOCA whose hulls do not really love going upwind? Hugo Boss’s option, also taken by Bureau Vallée II, who have made a good start, and Maitre Coq IVseems the riskier bet. Watching the budget and minimising potential losses seems like logical caution by the leader.

The situation is not so different in the Class40. Apart from the western route of Credit Mutuelfollowed by Earendil, all the boats are still sailing port tack this morning and have not yet reached Cape Finisterre, with Britain’s Sam Goodchild on Leyton still in the lead with his French co-skipper, Fabien Delahaye. This third day at sea also marks a pause and time for consideration because the very fast pace since the start left a lot skippers in the red.

The Portuguese trap

 “We will be upwind until the 31st at least,” Pratt said this morning. There is little hope then of finding speeds above 20 knots again before the weekend to shorten the road to Salvador de Bahia. For the Multi50 and IMOCA, the descent along the Iberian Peninsula could be a series of small manœuvres, to try to separate gradually from the Portuguese coast. A small area of ​​high pressure off Gibraltar awaits the unwise, who would like to shorten their route, with very uncertain winds on Wednesday. That should force them further away from Madeira and the Canary Islands archipelago to maintain a proper flow.

This is probably what the group Hugo Boss, Bureau Vallée IIand Maitre Coq IV, who have taken a loss in the immediate rankings to be in a more favourable position within 72 hours.

In the meantime, the passage of Cape Finisterre will be exciting to follow this afternoon. Some will try to pass between the TSS and the land to take advantage of the effect of the Galician mountains, but it will be at the cost of more manœuvres...and they are expensive for the skippers on these boats.