Weather analysis: The ridge will decide

The dice have been thrown on the Atlantic and the bets laid. But the bids will continue to rise until the end of the weekend. It is only after a week of racing that we will know the real ranking between those who invested in the west and those who went south. The deciding factor may be the ridge of high pressure that the southerners have to pass to join the trade wind.

To catch the trade winds, the southerners will have to cross an area of ​​high pressure around the archipelago of Madeira. Trying to pass it to the west does not seem realistic because it is evolving precisely in that direction. Hence, there is a great risk of being trapped in the middle of it. To the east of it, there is a corridor of uncertainty, with an upwind stretch first in weak wind before to the other side of the ridge and find the winds that will carry them to the coast of Morocco, where the trade wind is already blowing.

150 miles behind the leader of this Route du Café, the deal is much the same as for the first IMOCA, even if their if their angle going into the ridge could make crossing it more complicated. In the meantime, their situation seems much more enviable than that of the IMOCA who are heading west. Although, Alex Thomson on Hugo Boss said it was not so much a choice to go west as forced on them by a problem with one of their reaching sails. 

In a helpful wind and a calm sea, the southerners are going fast, taking advantage of a good angle of descent. To the west, the small group of mavericks, including Bureau Vallée II, Maitre CoQ,Hugo Bossand Malizia II Yacht Club de Monacoare about to endure a much tougher test. Overnight from Thursday to Friday, they will be able to finally dive south but only after they have been well shaken and stirred by the passage of a new low. The weather files show 35 to 40 knots and a very confused sea state for ten hours awaiting them before being able to accelerate with less risk of breakage. 

It is quite possible that Hugo Boss, Bureau Vallée, Maitre CoQand their pursuers will still be behind in the rankings on Friday, November 1. But one thing seems certain, the western group will then approach the trade wind with a much more favorable angle. The southern skippers, who will emerge out of the ridge level with the Canaries, will have to make multiple gybes to find the right entry point in the Doldrums.

The Class40, who have not yet crossed the latitude of Cape Finisterre, do not have much more choice than to keep angling forward in a group. While pushed  a little to the west, variations in the wind make it possible for them to maintain a more direct course on starboard tack. Their route should take them to the east of the Azores late in the weekend.