Weather analysis: The wealthy south

Trade winds are at the heart of the history of the coffee trade. Carrying the promise of wealth – and the actual coffee! - these powerful winds define the trajectories, accelerate the boat and widen the gaps. If you can get to them first they are the definition of a natural advantage. This is what is happening right now on the Transat Jacques Vabre Normandie Le Havre off the coast of Morocco as they head towards the Canaries. Seeking the trade winds is always worth it, the leaders are benefiting from them and now and as so often the rich will keep getting richer.

The fast train south 

“We had more wind than expected during the day,” Charlie Dalin (Apivia) said this morning. “We never really had a ridge, we went through the high pressure in a single gybe. Some have had less success, Initiatives-Cœur and Banque Populaire,were left in the wake of Charaland Apivia. The reverse was true in the Multi50 for Solidaires en Peloton ARSEP, which saw the pursuers win back a few miles on the leader in the high-pressure system and then find a much easier exit.

The leaders of Transat Jacques Vabre Normandie Le Havre  - and they are definitely the leaders now given the depression (metaphorical and actual) in the west, are rattling along at 20 knots. Behind the two leaders, who had a lead of 46 miles at the 07:00 UTC ranking, there were just 32 miles between the next sevent boats. Britain’s Samantha Davies / Paul Meilhat (FRA) on Initiatives-Cœurwere in fourth and Charlie Enright (USA) / Pascal Bidegorry (FRA) in sixth. “All good aboard. Hard running. We like. Thanks. Charlie,” was Enright’s short and sweet message to the race office this morning. 

Lively but not yet fully established, the trade winds off Morocco are presenting quite a chaotic sea according to the skippers. Both sea and wind will calm down a bit during the day - it climbed to over 30 knots at the end of the night. Its north-east angle is not perfect for the leaders, who cannot do better than a 260° starboard gybe and cannot head down along the coast Mauritania on port tack because of the risk of wind shadow from the archipelago of the Canaries blocking them at the exit.

However, overall, they are enjoying a radical change of scenery and temperature in comparison with yesterday. 

A bad weekend brewing in the west

For the skippers east of the 15th degree of longitude, the descent towards the trade winds should be quite favourable. The high-pressure ridge is narrow enough for them to pass through and there is still a good flow of northwest at the point of entry. But things may be seriously complicated for the band of six westerners. After the disappointment yesterday of not gaining any advantage from their commitment to the west, they keep finding there are new delays  stopping them catching the fast train. 

The Azores anticyclone is reforming with the Bermuda high and the transitional zone they need to cross is thickening faster than a corrupt politician at a corporate buffet. Now, it's still going well: while the leading southerners haven’t go such a good angle, the western IMOCA have better speed on a more direct route to the finish in Salavador de Bahia. But during the weekend, the southerners will make an increasingly more direct route and the westerners will crash into the anticyclone. Then, the gaps could become significant.

In the Class40s, two groups have clearly formed and they are moving in parallel a good hundred miles apart. Both will finally be able to open up their sails from tonight and during the weekend, before being slowed down Sunday. The strategy for both groups is the same: go as fast as possible straight to the south. But given the lateral gap, the opportunities and success of crossing the high pressure could be quite different on Sunday and Monday.